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EVENT POLY Counter-Strike: Phantom vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C $27,814 EVENT KALSHI When will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000? EVENT MANIFOLD Who will get a gap year at Hack Club in 2027? αΉ€1,787 EVENT SX Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $8,482 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 50% EVENT LIMITLESS ETH Up or Down - 5 Min EVENT MYRIAD Will Base TGE in 2026? $0 JACKPOT POLY GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? EVENT PREDICTIT Which office will AOC announce a run for by the end of 2027? $109 WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $500 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 100% EVENT OPINION Zomblers vs Club 333 $41 EVENT PROPHETX Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers EVENT POLY San Diego 2: Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny $17,843 EVENT KALSHI FedEx Open de France Winner $2,523,288 WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $500 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 100% EVENT MANIFOLD What colors will I eat today? αΉ€1,094 EVENT SX Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? EVENT LIMITLESS BTC Up or Down - 5 Min WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $500 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 100% EVENT MYRIAD ETH flipped on CMC Historicals in 2026? $100 EVENT PREDICTIT Will the House pass any articles of impeachment by the end of 2026? EVENT OPINION Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies EVENT PROPHETX Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $1,021 BUY CL above $95.93 β€” 2026-09-30 @ 71% EVENT POLY What price will Solana hit on September 23? $8,883 EVENT KALSHI BTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT? $632,760 JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? EVENT MANIFOLD Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026? αΉ€482 WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $500 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 100% EVENT SX L.A. Lakers vs Philadelphia 76ers EVENT LIMITLESS ETH Up or Down - 15 Min EVENT MYRIAD GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700? $48 EVENT PREDICTIT How many vetoes will Trump issue in 2026? WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $605 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 25% EVENT OPINION What price will Bitcoin hit Week of September 21 2026? $3,716 EVENT PROPHETX Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns JACKPOT POLY GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? EVENT POLY What price will Ethereum hit on September 23? $33,100 WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $907 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 50% EVENT KALSHI Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? $9 EVENT MANIFOLD Will China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026? αΉ€340 EVENT SX Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat EVENT LIMITLESS BTC Up or Down - 15 Min $9 WHALE SX $607 Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals @ 59% EVENT MYRIAD Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship 2026? $14 EVENT PREDICTIT Will Congress override a veto in 2026? $0 JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? EVENT OPINION paiN Academy vs Semente do Mal $32 WHALE OUTCOME_XYZ $500 SELL template:sportsContestResult @ 100% EVENT PROPHETX Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€10,000 NO Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? @ 5% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€2,662 NO In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? @ 34% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€116,561 NO All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY? @ 4% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€10,000 NO @ 2% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€5,000 NO @ 2% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€15,000 NO @ 2% JACKPOT POLY Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€10,000 NO @ 3% WHALE MANIFOLD αΉ€2,000 YES @ 94%
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Blog

Newsletters and posts from the EventTracker desk β€” what actually happened across the prediction markets we track, measured from our own data. Newest first. Free to read.

  1. Newsletter October 2026 Issue 02 Β· October 2026 Β· The Uncertainty Tax What it actually costs to hold a one dollar contract on the venues we track. Most charge along the same curve, taking the most when the outcome is least certain, and they disagree completely about who pays: on every trade, only when you win, or not at all. Tal Ayalon
  2. Newsletter September 2026 Issue 01 Β· July & August 2026 β€” The World Cup Hangover The first EventTracker newsletter, covering July and August 2026 across the venues we track: the World Cup hangover (daily volume fell 57% after the final), an August that cooled 34% while Kalshi grew 45%, and the new capacity that arrived while the market cooled. Rebecca Michaeli